Author Archives: Robert Bast
Arguments against NPCs
Because of video games, whenever simulation theory is discussed, NPCs (non-player characters) regularly come up. In a game they are computer controlled characters, and do not exist outside of what is necessary to progress the game in real time. If, for example, you pay a NPC to construct a barn for you, typically the barn will just appear. All the NPC was needed for in game time was a conversation.
Simulation theory is taking off in the regular world, and calling someone a NPC is a very recent putdown. So it is perhaps a good time to consider whether (if we are living in a simulation) there are NPCs.
I will ignore what non-NPCs are – they could be actual conscious beings playing a game, or simulations based on a real living being, or something in-between. For argument’s sake, when I mention a player, I mean you or me, as we experience life. Presumably NPCs are hard-wired to not participate in simulation theory discussions, so, presumably, you and I cannot be one.
Can you test for NPCs?
In a video game you cannot interview or run tests on a NPC, so this never comes up. But in a real world we can, and it would be strange and noticeable if certain people did not participate in studies that could out them.
We, collectively, regularly complete tests. Schools, driver’s licence, eyesight, medical and so on. So, unless you want to decree that all medical professionals are NPCs, then someone will have noticed if a NPC doesn’t have blood or a brain or whatever. Creating a perfect replica of a player physically takes a lot of processing power.
Possibly, given its intricacy, a NPC declines to have a brain scan. That could be an easter egg. Otherwise, in terms of processing, an NPC is physically identical, and all that could be different is their thoughts.
Difficulty hiding them – variety of actions + circumstances
An NPC with less processing power used on thoughts will be hard to find. Yes, they could be mentally deficient people, but what use would they serve a simulation? Any NPC in our simulation, to avoid being noticeably different, must have describable taste (at least in TV and pop music and fast food), desire to buy products and services, desire to travel (perhaps), fall in love (at least nominally), raise children, perform work (few of us are factory workers these days) and so on. That is a lot of functionality that is the same as a player’s. Possibly, though, you could find people who are somehow limited in all of those aspects – generic people – who live in the suburbs I guess. But nobody has yet.
The other way of looking at this is, what does a player have or demonstrate that a NPC does not and cannot? I have previously suggested artistry and invention. Possibly even just having a questioning mind, and critical reasoning. But if that was the case, how much different – in processing power – would that be from a NPC? I am thinking not much, but it is hard to gauge considering we cannot create any of those with computers ourselves.
All the other animals, fraction of computing power needed
While arguably all animals are NPCs, they greatly outnumber us (many trillions of ants, for example) and that would mean that the fraction of computing power needed for players to not be NPCs is relatively very minor to what is required to run the whole planet.
Why even have them and not fewer people?
We would of course need to prove a need for NPCs. Why even have them instead of fewer people on Earth, all of whom are players?
So, your mission is to:
- Find provable, quantifiable things that NPCs cannot do
- Find a physical easter egg in NPCs – like a brain scan on someone unwilling
- Find a purpose for NPCs (like factory work) that a player cannot or would not do
The other question is, how many players are there? If it was only me, then this could very easily just be a game. No need for blood vessels in a NPC unless I personally need to witness it. If there are billions of players, why even have NPCs?
Personally, if I am to entertain the idea of NPCs then it can only work like this:
- Only players can create something new
- Only NPCs do the worst of jobs
- NPCs switch off when not needed to actually do something (when being told that they did it will suffice)
- A physical attempt to prove NPCs – like chopping off someone’s finger to see the blood – will be the only way to know. Anything digital or non-local can be faked.
Blood-letting is a bad example, unless all the criminals and soldiers of the world are players…
Content Generation – The Reason for the Simulation?
This is a pretty simple concept. Similar to the infinite monkeys theorem, which says that if you give them typewriters they will eventually write Shakespeare.
Our simulation could exist to generate content, like movies, music, novels, memes. Whatever takes off here could be popular IRL.
Why does our simulation have cave art from 40,000 years ago? Because the simulations that didn’t were switched off.
As long as we keep pumping out content, the simulation can keep running. Fund the arts!
Excess Mortality, COVID and Simulation Limits
If we do live in a simulation, then presumably it is one of many, and therefore constraints will be involved.
There will be physical constraints:
- Time – while our time could be sped up versus the time of those who run this, there will be limits to how much time can be sped up, and limits on how long the show-runners will want to wait and see the results
- Size – even in a future where a realistic simulation is achievable, there will be limits on processing power and data storage
And there will be constraints around the purpose:
- Time – when does the simulation start and finish in the years of the simulation? There must be an end-goal, and it there must be finite limits to how long it will run for
- Staying on Target – if the simulation goes in an unintended direction, it will need to be adjusted or ended
Which got me thinking about to angles that relate to and might explain what we see happening in our world.
Wars are a feature of modern human civilisations, and we see them as sad, strange, but inevitable. Even when we progress in so many other ways, one mad-mad (Putin) upsets things with a war that only has negative outcomes for all except for one man and his dream of a legacy.
Wars have also been based on religious beliefs a lot, even when the sparring sides believe in the same god, but have differences of opinion around how to worship it/them.
So conceivably, when the world trends towards becoming too homogenous, in culture or belief, the show-runners interfere and create a war. Which suggests that they control our leaders. That might explain why many leaders are so ideologically nice until they actually get into power, and then their ideals fade away.
Pandemics or natural disasters, are often seen as acts of god. Perhaps they truly are? It is entirely possible that there is a limit to the number of players (humans) that our simulation can handle. So maybe we are reaching that hard limit and alongside lower birth rates, we have an engineered pandemic to reduce the global population.
Recently there is a puzzle as to why the excess mortality rates are substantially higher than those attributed to COVID. Quite likely they were simply undiagnosed, or were indirectly caused by the virus, adding to the woes of a body that was already sick, and killing them months after the illness.
Or, perhaps, our show-runners have turned up the mortality dial a bit. More people randomly getting cancer and heart disease, or it becoming more fatal than before.
They need to be careful because some of us in the game might notice that things are not adding up.
NPCs Cause Fads
They are programmed to be “normal”. So whenever something trends popular, they jump on board and it becomes more popular. Feedback effect.
Even illnesses and ailments. Perhaps ADHD… Perhaps chronic fatigue.
We accept fads, trends and fashions as simply being an aspect of society, but what if it is not natural.
Only real players can read this post, because NPCs are programmed to not consider they live in a simulation. So I am asking you – do you reckon you follow fads and fashions less that the average person? If so, we could be on to something!
Note: that doesn’t mean something popular doesn’t deserve to be so. NPCs don’t start anything new, ever. But they can amplify something that is trending.
NPCs Won’t Be Creative Types
If we know one thing about AI, it isn’t very good at creating art. Any paintings or music they make tend to be shared around because of how odd or bad they are.
Which leads me to believe that Non-Player Characters (NPCs) in our world are unlikely to be creatives. The singers and actors who are simply mimicking, might be NPCs, but those who write their own songs, and the screenwriters and perhaps directors, they are going to be real.
Likewise, people with unique taste… It seems that 90% of society – the people we otherwise don’t notice – are very content with McDonalds and $5 pizzas. They would mostly be NPCs, incapable of separating quality from “what everyone else does”. At the other end of the scale, food critics and master chefs would be real, and in-between those two extremes… who can say?
Which makes me think that NPCs will typically follow trends to be “normal” but are incapable of starting those trends themselves. So the first fans of McDonalds would be real, and therefore some of their current customers will be as well, so don’t write them off.
Surround yourself with creatives and this temporary experience might be richer for you!
Falling for a NPC
An NPC is a non-player character, as opposed to a real person (or whatever we are, playing this simulation.
They are programmed to be realistic and fulfil needs and purposes.
You might fall in love with one – is that a problem?
NO!
There are two possibilities:
- You fell for a real being, just as you would like, all good
- They are an NPC. which means you are just playing, and you get to play again, having learned
They Keep To Themselves
I think a way to crack any existential puzzle is to have as many disparate inputs as possible, and absorb it all. I was just watching Stranger Things and simulation theory popped into my head. Meanwhile non-player characters cannot be found out…
It is hard to believe that every NPC is totally unique, like us real people. Inadequacy in the design process, efficiencies, or simply hubris could cause them to have shared traits or commonalities.
Which would have been fine 100 years ago, but today such similarities are more easily discoverable, if the data is available.
In anticipation of the technology – not hard, it turned up in many other simulations – they may have designed the NPCs to not be very social and sharing. Possibly they hide behind a cult like Scientology (or golfers, or cyclists), hiding in plain sight, or possibly they just don’t show up on the radar.
You know how the neighbours of a terrorist thought they kept to themselves, but otherwise seemed nice enough? Maybe all violent extremists are NPCs?
What if hundreds of NPCs loved eating octopus, read every James Bond fan-fiction and never tied their shoe-laces? If they shared all of these things in the socials, or even “private” online chats, that could be discoverable. Easiest just to program them to live a quiet, mostly hidden life.
So, any friends or acquaintances who “aren’t into social media” are worthy of suspicion.
But also, some NPCs may be placed here as a catalyst, like Shakespeare or Darwin. And they seek attention absolutely.
Real players are likely in-between. And would be the only people to read this.
A Simulation Without Aliens
Many people figure that the universe is so vast and old, it makes no sense that aliens haven’t stopped by to say hello.
What if, in the real world, aliens did turn up, and everything changed in unimaginable ways good or bad?
What if the aliens created a simulation to see what would’ve become of humans if the aliens never interfered?
If they were advanced enough to make it to Earth, they are perhaps advanced enough to build such a simulation.
Start the simulation prior to alien contact, and simply remove aliens from the simulation. Let the solar system be navigable, but beyond that is just lights in the sky and not an actual whole universe in the simulation.
Which means “we” can never see proof of aliens out there, or on Earth, because in our simulation they don’t exist!
DILF
I’ve been visiting/looking after my kids, part of a random shared parenting arrangement.
Driving through the resort, the kids point out a guy – standing next to his $180K ute – who their Mum says is a DILF. And he looks it.
Thing is, most of the time in and out out of the resort – Daddy Uber – he is in the same spot doing the same thing. Instead of like, working.
I mention The Truman Show to the kids and they were made to watch it at school!
I might drive in and out a few more times than normal, to check. But of course in a simulation they will know I typed this